Everyone wants to know if Apple Pay is going to be as successful as promised; banks that are participating are offering promotions for people who use the tech, and we hear new banks joining the list almost daily, it seems. Customers with an iPhone 6 seem to sign up immediately, so what does that mean for the pay service? Right now, Apple Pay is up 1.7 percent of the market share since it came out six weeks ago. The main thing to understand is that it will probably be 2016 before we see any major prominence. Why? Because people usually wait until their contracts expire in order to get a new iPhone at a subsidized (free) rate. That means people who bought an iPhone 5 when it came out in 2012; these people are probably the ones who have gotten iPhone 6 and 6 Plus already. The 5S came out in September 2013, which means people who got one of those aren’t likely ready for an upgrade until some time in 2015. This will translate to a larger number of people using Apple Pay by the end of 2015.